As the United States approaches the 2024 general election, America is at a crossroads. Since the country has entered the era of the perpetual campaign, started with Barack Obama’s announcement of his re-election bid two years before his first term ended, a large number of would-be candidates have announced that they are seeking the Republican nomination for president. On the Democrat side, Robert Francis Kennedy, Jr. has announced that he is challenging the re-nomination of President Biden. If Kennedy’s name were Robert Francis instead of Kennedy, his candidacy would be a joke and he would be deemed a candidate for psychiatric care. It should be noted that incumbents challenged for re-nomination by insurgents in their party have typically lost the general election; Democrats when challenged from the left, Republicans when challenged from the right. Notable examples include Edward Kennedy’s challenge to incumbent Jimmy Carter (1980), and Pat Buchanan’s challenge to George H.W. Bush (1992). Both of these incumbents were re-nominated but went on to lose the general election. Other examples include Gerald Ford being challenged by Ronald Reagan (1976) and Lyndon Johnson withdrawing from seeking re-nomination after challenges from Robert Kennedy and Eugene McCarthy (1968). All of these challenged incumbents lost and the other party captured the White House. Kennedy’s challenge augurs very poorly for Biden’s possibility of victory in November 2024.
Who the putative GOP nominee will be is problematic as a race between Joe Biden and Donald Trump may not offer an enthusiastic option to the mass of American voters. There are Democrats and Republicans who, come hell or high water, will stick with their party’s nominee. However, a large number of centrist and independent voters are decisive in most elections and they seem to be chagrined by the potential choices available in 2024.
Current polls indicate a strong preference among potential GOP voters for another run by Donald Trump. Currently under several indictments for various charges, he seems to be a victim of a weaponized Department of Justice which under President Biden’s direction seems hell bent on eliminating him as a candidate in 2024. The charges of classified document retention against him seems to be no more criminal than similar acts by Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton done with impunity. Whether he will be convicted remains in doubt but no former President has ever faced such legal processes. His response to most adverse occurrences seem to be a petulant response threatening vengeance of one sort or another against his detractors. Despite all of Trump’s legal problems, a plurality of Republican voters favor him according to current polling samples. Other candidates seem to have little traction among voters at this time.
Trump, during his presidency espoused many ideas and programs which were positive for America. Promoting the return of manufacturing to the United States, lessening reliance on China (PRC) as the mainstay of our manufacturing supply chain, calling out nations who violated World Trade Organization rules with impunity, combating foreign industrial espionage in the United States and demanding that our NATO “allies” live up to their obligations to spend 2% of GDP on defense won few allies for Trump outside of America. Yet inflation was tame, unemployment was the lowest in decades and uncontrolled entry by undocumented foreigners into the U.S. was under control. In short, much of what Trump espoused was good for America and Americans. Not so good for other countries who had grown addicted to America placing their interests first. Where he failed was in his behavior as President. To say that he behaved in an unpresidential manner while in office would be a profound understatement. His response to the Covid pandemic, at a time when half a million Americans had died of that virus was boorish, as he bellowed “Covid, Covid, it’s nothing”. How many millions of votes he lost because of his brash behavior is incalculable. Every Covid victim had a father, mother, spouse, children, siblings etc, and they voted. And we got Joe Biden. Polls have shown Biden with one of the lowest approval ratings for a president in modern times, yet he insists he will run again as he knows that millions of voters will not support Donald Trump due to his behavior. Can America survive four more years of Joe Biden? Can America survive four more years of Donald Trump?
Considering that the Trump programs were beneficial for America during his incumbency, the natural conclusion seems to be that Trumpism without Trump may be the most attractive position for the GOP in 2024. The 2024 Republican nominee must be a candidate with a broad appeal to Americans of all economic and social classes who will find the GOP program something that they can support. There’s no room for elitism, ethnic supremacy or scapegoatism in this candidate. It must be someone warm, sincere and simpatico who can appeal to all Americans regardless of age, gender, race, religion, economic status or region. This candidate should be someone reminiscent of Dwight D. Eisenhower. He served two terms during the height of the Cold War without getting us into any foreign conflict. An American agenda requires emphasis on the domestic problems of the United States and its citizens, rather than being the indispensable nation that worries about the rest of the world first. In particular, a successful candidate must recognize that the European Union is strong, rich and powerful; Seventy-eight years after the end of Word War II Europe no longer needs an American defense umbrella. American troops stationed all over the world need to be brought home. We can no longer support European and Asian economies that prosper, benefit from unfair trade terms and steal American jobs, patents and products.
Joe Biden and the Democrats have given us rampant inflation, an eroding economy and geopolitical position, an overextended military and have driven the country into near bankruptcy. Biden is especially vulnerable in 2024 as is the Democrat Party. Out of control crime, illegal immigration and homelessness only makes the election more favorable to the GOP. If they can nominate a candidate who can fulfill the requirements mentioned above and appeal to the vital center, they can win in 2024. Donald Trump should not be the nominee. He should start working on his Presidential Library. America and Americans want and deserve peace and prosperity. That is not asking too much. If the GOP fails to nominate a candidate with broad electoral appeal in 2024, the public can thank them for four more years of Joe Biden and failed progressive Democrat policies.
Garry S. Sklar
Aruba
July 7, 2023
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